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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still